Jackson, MS skyline including the State Capitol Building Credit: iStock / CRobertson

Does District Attorney Scott Colom have a fighting chance in Mississippi?

If he does, it says a lot about a state that hasn’t had a Black senator since Reconstruction and hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1982.

It also says a lot about how unpopular the GOP and President Donald Trump are and how both have largely chosen to avoid the crises of affordability, lack of healthcare and job scarcity that plague every sector of American life.

Mississippi, a rural state in the Deep South, is not exempt, and that could put it in play this election season.

Of Colom’s incumbent opponent, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, “(she) has simply abandoned Mississippi,” voter Theophilus King told WJTV-12. “I don’t care what color you are, or socioeconomic level you’re in. Most of us have been neglected and ignored by Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.”

Hope in a tough state

Insiders believe if Mississippi’s large Black population is energized (almost 40 percent of its residents are Black), while many white Republican voters demoralized by the Trump Administration, Colom could beat incumbent Hyde-Smith. 

“We got to have a senator that looks out for Mississippi, that puts Mississippi farmers first, Mississippi small businesses first, represent our values by not allowing corruption to ruin our country and actually delivers on the commitments to put America first,” Colom told ABC News.

Right now, Hyde-Smith has a slim, 3.3-point lead in the race, marked by her comments around food chain issues, saying voters “have so many proteins to choose from” after beef became scarce due to Trump Administration’s actions, and inactions, on our food supply.

Colom responded with a viral ad campaign where residents say they’d rather “pick another Senator,” than another protein. 

Still, many pollsters and analysts feel Hyde-Smith is a lock to hold on to her seat.

“Trump won the state by 23 points in 2024, and it’s extremely racially polarized, meaning not enough white voters back Democrats for the party to win statewide,” wrote NPR.

The Democrats’ (non-existent) Southern strategy

Ranking last in some vital issues—from healthcare to poverty to infrastructure—Mississippi has long been exploited by the GOP that runs it, and neglected by the Democratic Party that doesn’t. (“I hope people will realize that Mississippi was always a state that had potential,” Colom said to the New York Times. “But it does need resources and attention.”) 

In fact, the big tent party hasn’t had much of a Southern strategy in decades despite the fact that 60 percent of its most reliable base, Black American voters, live in the South. 

But with Georgia becoming a purple state after Joe Biden’s win in 2020, a close North Carolina U.S. Senate race, and the new gains in Texas with Hispanic voters, the South may be in play.

“Black voters are still the backbone of the Democratic Party in the South and nationally, but I think what’s happening now is that African Americans have built infrastructure in Georgia and North Carolina—with little to no help from national donors or the party, mind you—that is bringing new voters into these Southern progressive coalitions,” said veteran Southern journalist and media consultant Ryan “R.L.” Nave to URL Media’s We The Many.

Big names have shown up in recent weeks to campaign in Mississippi, including Kamala Harris for Colom and President Trump on Monday for Hyde-Smith, and Black Democrats are calling for more investment, hinting at a race that’s much more precarious than one would assume.

“Whether he wins or not, he ran a good race,” said Mary Wallace Hodge, 79, a retired store manager in Columbus, Miss., to the New York Times. “Republicans are scared.”

So why not Mississippi?

A possible path to victory

Nave says there are two paths Democrats can take to victory in the South—either be in a state where a significant percentage of the white population is willing to vote Democratic, like in Maryland, Virginia, or North Carolina, or have a Republican candidate that doesn’t inspire the base because they’re politically “abhorrent.”

According to Nave, Hyde-Smith’s weakness of “being in lockstep with Donald Trump” when he’s “broken most of his promises on the economy” is the main reason talk of a Colom win is even in play.

“You have a sitting senator in Cindy Hyde-Smith who declined to campaign with Trump earlier this year,” Nave said. “Now that Scott Colom is surging and filling up venues, she held this bizarre Hail Mary rally in the Trumpiest part of Mississippi, near Tennessee and Alabama, where she literally spoke for two seconds.”

“I don’t know that Mississippi Republicans find Hyde Smith as repugnant as folks find Ken Paxton in Texas, but this is a rare instance where depressed Republican enthusiasm combined with a surge in national Democratic support that we haven’t seen before is creating a lane for Mississippi to elect a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since the early 80s,” Nave said.

Will Mississippi make history or hew to the status quo?

Election Day is D-Day for this state.

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