This New York race is on repeat, but can Democrat Rep. Tom Suozzi make the magic happen again?

Two years ago, Suozzi, a four-term Congressman and centrist Dem, slugged it out with his MAGA-backed rival, Mike LiPetri, narrowly beating him by less than 4 points. The news then was that Suozzi, back after an unsuccessful run for governor, had reclaimed the 3rd U.S. Congressional District in a special election for a seat once corrupted by former-GOP Congressman-turned-criminal George Santos. 

Suozzi had previously served the district from 2017 until 2022. 

But while the candidates are the same, the playing field for New York’s 3rd district has changed. Recent redistricting has shifted the district’s demographics, making it slightly more favorable to Democrats. The district now covers Nassau County’s North Shore (most of Hempstead, Oyster Bay, and Huntington), along with the borough of Queens, giving it six “majority-minority” election districts instead of four.

If Democrats can engage their coalition, Suozzi could be the likely winner, as the district is 45% non-white, compared to 51% white voters, with the largest group being Asian (25%), followed by Hispanics at 16% and Black Americans at 4%. As of February this year, about 50k more voters are registered as Democrats than Republicans, making turnout in this once-evenly stacked district paramount.

News about the race can be hard for voters to find, but the New York Times reported this month that a Trump-aligned PAC and the Congressional Leadership Fund have “paused” ad spending in the race against Suozzi.

Not the best sign for LiPetri, who already faces a cash disadvantage. The Democrat had more than $7.1 million in campaign funds, with almost $5 million in hand as of September, while LiPetri had about $2.3 million in contributions and a little over $883,000 in available cash for the same period. 

This despite the New York Post reporting that the GOP had poured more than $8 million into the district. 

Early in the race, some analysts thought LiPetri had an edge, with Republican Nassau County executive Bruce Blankman running for governor at the top of the ticket. But Donald Trump was top of the ticket in 2024, and LiPetri still lost. And this happened even though Trump ultimately won the district in his race against then-Vice President Kamala Harris.

It also doesn’t help that the polling has Suozzi with a near 10-point advantage.

So while the GOP is hoping to drag Suozzi down by trying to tie him to more progressive views and policies he clearly does not espouse, all signs point to voters not listening.

Early voting in New York starts this weekend on Oct. 24.

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