A storm is brewing, both literally and figuratively, ahead of Election Day. 

While weather analysts are predicting rainfall and storms across the Midwest as well as parts of Texas on Nov. 3rd, politically we’re in the endgame. Whether President Donald Trump travels to Iowa and Kansas to campaign or decides to remote-work his final push for Republicans, nothing can stop what is about to unfold.

It’s either Blue Wave or bust.

A midterm for the record books

Which way those electoral winds blow will not be determined by barometric pressure or rainfall, or the whims of a highly temperamental president, but by Americans turning out to vote, en masse, to let their voices and choices be heard.

Many states are already reporting record early voter turnout as more than 43 million Americans have already voted in a midterm that has become a referendum on the Trump presidency. 

Democratic voters, despite being distressed over the current state of our country, are more determined than ever to get to the polls. They’re energized by dynamic candidates like Abdul El-Sayed in the Michigan U.S. Senate race, and hoping to turn the tide on the graft, corruption, unncessary wars, and economic uncertainty that have become hallmarks of Trump’s second go-round at the White House. 

Meanwhile, Republican leadership is doing everything from begging to threatening their voters to throwing frat parties out of fear that too many will sit this one out.

Should he stay or should he go?

Trump’s cancellation of his Kanas/Iowa trips only to announce he is now going is more a sign of panic than power. 

He lashed out at reporter who dared to question his moves, saying: “I’m not going to Kansas because [GOP Sen. Roger Marshall is] doing very well,” Trump said, later adding, “I feel perfect” and that “I don’t feel I have to go to Kansas,” according to the Associated Press.

And yet, he’s now going.

These aren’t the moves of man who is strong mentally, physically or politically. These are the moves that floundering and fear are made of; fear that the majority the GOP holds in Congress won’t make it past Tuesday.

But Democratic voters shouldn’t get too confident. 

What’s wrong with being confident?

Bad weather or menacing president, people need to get to the polls. We’ve seen this all before in 2016 and 2024 when the polls were wrong because GOP voters are less likely than Democratic voters to respond to surveys. This caused many pollsters to greatly undercount GOP enthusiasm.

“In our final Times/Siena national poll, white Democrats were about 30 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans. That’s a higher gap than in 2024 and pretty similar to what we saw in our final polls in 2020, when the polls underestimated Mr. Trump’s support by about four points on average,” wrote Nate Cohn of the New York Times.

There’s also the reality that many Trump faithful face further isolation and ostracization if they admit they were duped by a cult-like movement or were simply wrong. Many are already alienated from their families and communities, clinging to MAGA because it’s all they have left. Does that fear extend to supporting a president and political party they no longer believe in?

Maybe. 

Most are more likely to sit this one out than vote for a Democrat, as the problem was never the message, but the imperfect messenger.

Ghosts of 2016

If a Blue Wave hits on Tuesday, no one will likely be surprised as pollsters and press alike have been preparing voters for this reality. From polls to prediction markets, things keep turning more and more to the Democrats’ favor. 

But I can’t get Election Night 2016 out of my head—an election I still have PTSD from. Watching the likelihood of a Hillary Clinton win turn into a victory for Trump completely soured me on the guessing game that our elections have become.

Do we believe the record turnout, the energized Democratic base, the pollsters, and all the press around the possibility that the Democrats could seize not just the House, but the Senate? Or do we believe the reality that Republicans have dominated many Southern and Midwestern states for more than a generation thanks to the neglect of the Democratic Party? What incentive do places like Texas, Mississippi, or South Carolina have to change when GOP leadership in these states have purposefully cut, gut and depressed turnout for voters of color?

Yes, gas prices are high. Yes, the real unemployment numbers are far worse than what’s being reported. Yes, the war in Iran is almost universally despised and considered an expensive blunder. 

But is that enough for South Carolina, a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1998, to elect a political unknown over a Republican nepo politician? Is that enough for Scott Colom to overcome generations of disenfranchisement, discrimination and broken promises to beat the odds and become Mississippi’s first Black U.S. Senator since Reconstruction?

Yes, the GOP is playing a desperate, flop-sweat fueled defense, bolstered by trillionaire Elon Musk’s deep pockets, but the fact that it takes all of this to try to stop Trump from facing the reality—that his presidency, the war in Iran, and his economy are all failures, points to a weakness that may be impossible to overcome.

The looming storm

A storm is definitely brewing.

Whether it comes in the form of inclement, stormy weather in the Midwest or something more consequential remains to be seen.

Make your plan to either vote early this weekend or be at the ballot box come Tuesday morning. If you’re concerned about agents at the polls, don’t go alone, and document everything. Call your state election officials or the ACLU’s hotline at 866-OUR-VOTE.

Every vote will be needed.

Every vote must count.

And your voice deserves to be heard.

So, get your umbrella ready. It’s gonna be wild one.

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