The sign on California's State Capitol Mall welcoming visitors. Credit: iStock / casch

Could California’s recently redrawn map help Democrats flip Congress?

Last November, the state’s voters passed Prop 50, which redrew the California political map to make it more favorable to Democrats. This came after Republicans across the country redrew their state maps at President Trump’s urging. 

In many red states, these shifts disenfranchised voters of color, shortly after the Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act. Critics lambasted the redistricting as allowing gerrymandering to proliferate on the right.

But two could play that game.

The fight for District 6

Fighting redistricting with redistricting, California voters approved Proposition 50, and now former Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley is locked in a tight race to hold his former Congressional District 3 seat. He is running as an Independent against Democratic former State Sen. Richard Pan for what is now California District 6. 

Earlier this year, Kiley left the GOP for reasons that remain a little light on specifics.

“There was no single moment that led Kiley to decide to formally leave the Republican Party,” wrote PBS’ KVIE affiliate, adding: “Instead, ‘it was a series of things,’ said the Congressman, who cited the government shutdown and ‘seeing how extreme partisanship had gotten.’”

He has pledged to work with both parties to find solutions.

Meanwhile, Pan has painted Kiley as a MAGA/Trump Republican.

“Kiley’s been in Congress. He’s been there for four years. He was Donald Trump’s MAGA champion. When he went to Congress, he supported and voted with Donald Trump 98% of the time,” Pan told CBS News.

Recent polling shows the duo in a statistical dead heat. During the summer, Pan had a 4-point advantage, but as of September, they’re dead even.

Blurred lines

In fact, redistricting has put many once-solidly red or blue districts into play, creating uncertainty in races across the country.

Wrote NPR’s Larry Kaplow: “Republicans redrew districts partly on how people voted in the presidential election in 2024. Now the political mood has changed, and many who voted for President Trump two years ago could be voting for Democrats, or not voting, in the midterms. The Republicans could lose many of the districts they targeted.”

In the national fight, where many redistricting efforts ended up in the courts, 7 states were redistricted in the GOP’s favor, while two enacted maps that helped Democrats (California and Utah).

Some are reporting that these efforts may have backfired in Texas, where African American turnout is higher than expected, and Hispanics are turning away from the GOP.

“It is always perilous to draw districts in the middle of a decade. We’ve taken that view for a long period of time,” said vice president at the Brennan Center for Justice’s Washington, D.C. office, Kareem Crayton, to CBS News. “You can’t be sure that what you are drawing, based on the most recent election, is going to work for the next election.”

Of California’s newest districts, redrawn to favor Democrats, the Public Policy Institute of California writes that “(T)he party could expect to win 47 or 48 of the 52 seats on the ballot—five or six more than Democrats currently hold.”

Despite these shifts, a few competitive races remain in the Central Valley (a historic GOP stronghold) and the San Diego area.

While a gerrymandered map can heavily influence a race, it is up to the voters to decide who will represent them. No amount of trickery and gamesmanship can change that. 

With voters already heading to the polls and election day a week away, who ultimately wins this game—and Congress—will soon be revealed.

Have you made your plan to vote yet?

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