In March, I dined with a Zohran Mamdani supporter who asked me if he had a chance. I said no—the machines and money are way too strong.
This week, Mamdani did the unthinkable and upended a household name known for decades, backed by Wall Street and the infamous Queens party leadership, in a victory that already reshapes New York City politics as we know it. In some ways, the stage was set by a number of factors–from economics to demographics–for a talent like Mamdani to do precisely this. The 33-year-old tapped into what Epicenter NYC has been encountering among New Yorkers since our founding in the pandemic, exactly five years ago, and a similar reality that propelled Donald Trump into a second term: They are fed up with the status quo.
Bottom line: I was wrong. Over the last few weeks, as it became clear that this candidate stood a chance, I began observing what enabled Mamdani to essentially make history:
Social media does not win elections—but it sure helps.
As a once-rapper and the son of the acclaimed director Mira Nair, Mamdani’s comfort in front of the camera—not just at the dais like most politicians—worked in his favor. Social media, many of us have written, cannot win elections at the local level, where issues are more nuanced and don’t fit the extremes and polarized content favored by platforms like Facebook.
And yet Mamdani adopted a tactic on social more akin to content creator, capturing footage as he talked to average New Yorkers and the small donors who fueled his base. Unlike the Kamala Harris campaign, which frustrated influencers by trying to control their message (and phones) at the Democratic National Convention, Mamdani leveraged them to showcase his own authenticity. Check him out on “Subway Stories” with Kareen Rahma and then walking a portion of Upper Manhattan with The Kid Mero, the internet-famous Dominican American, for flawless examples that helped draw new voters into Mamdani’s vision.
About that message: Zohran Mamdani had just one.
In an Instagram collab post, a comedian asked Mamdani about finding love in New York. He pivoted the conversation to time and affordability, saying New Yorkers are “on a hamster wheel of anxiety,” stressed over rising rents and food costs, and that it’s hard to think about relationships when times are so tough.
The moment was a signature example of Mamdani staying on message throughout the campaign: New York’s affordability crisis pervades every aspect of life—and thus, his messaging.
The South Asian population roars.
We’ve seen a surge in the political relevance of South Asians, people who trace their lineage to India, Pakistan, Bangladeshi, Nepal, etc. In 2021, Shahana Hanif of Brooklyn was elected the first Bangladeshi American, and Shekar Krishnan of Queens the first Indian American, to serve on the New York City Council.
In a 2022 Epicenter interview, lawyer and activist Ali Najmi (who now serves as Mamdani’s election attorney) specifically called out Banglas and Indo-Caribbeans as two constituencies politicians could not afford to ignore. Mamdani tapped into his own identity—the son of two Indian-born immigrants, with a father raised in Uganda—to reach them.
In one viral video, he relies on Bollywood references and speaks in Hindi. In another, with Hanif, Mamdani speaks in Bengali and concludes with the phrase “hashi khushi,” which means “happy and cheerful” in both Hindi and Bengali.
New York City is intersectional.
Born in Kampala, Uganda, and the product of an interfaith marriage, Mamdani’s identity is complicated— yet symbolic of the New York we have become. Less than a third of New Yorkers are non-Hispanic white, leaving the rest of the city to identify as Black, Asian, Latino or multiracial.
This demographic reality has helped shift races elsewhere in New York; in my district and home of Jackson Heights, for example, the faces and names of our federal, state and city officials have been completely transformed—from majority white to Latino and Asian. They embrace intersectionality—from marching in pride parades, to parenting multiracial children, to learning constituents’ languages. Council Member Krishnan, for example, often introduces himself as “el indú que habla español,” or the Indian who speaks Spanish.
So when Andrew Cuomo mispronounced Mamdani’s name in a recent debate, it was a reminder of what most New Yorkers experience every day–as the mainstream institutions that purport to represent us continue to fall short.
Similarly, efforts to cast a monolithic “Black vote” or “Latino vote” as Cuomo’s to lose failed to see the diversity within those blocs: young, old, left, moderate. It is no coincidence that nuanced identities might better understand the nuanced nature of politics and populations.
Mamdani’s upset stands on the shoulders of historic elections in Queens.
Five years ago, I was commuting to my job at Hudson Yards when I saw a curious sight: Congressman Joseph Crowley handing out flyers at the Jackson Heights-Roosevelt Avenue station. He’d been my representative the entire time I’d called the neighborhood home—his presence a constant. That was my first inkling that the 2018 primary would be different. Indeed, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s victory was historic—not just for ending Crowley’s reign but for inspiring so many other left-leaning candidates to challenge the status quo.
A stellar ground game.
Mamdani’s social presence was coupled with tens of thousands of volunteers who formed an army fanning out New York City neighborhoods. I have yet to meet a household with a registered Democrat who didn’t encounter one of his foot soldiers–which is simply astounding and impressive.
Indeed, door knocking is one of the tried-and-true strategies for winning a campaign. Early on, consistently, and widely—by the candidate, endorsers and canvassers. Mamdani did this well, and leveraged average folk and high-profile celebrities alike to carry his message. (True story: Kal Penn from “Harold and Kumar Go To White Castle” and “The Namesake” rang my doorbell this week hoping to ask my sister-in-law to vote for Mamdani; she’s moved to Jersey.)
Charisma, charisma, charisma.
Political observers liken Mamdani to a young Barack Obama. I’d compare his oratory skills more to Bill Clinton’s in the ability to speak to everyday people and their problems in a sympathetic but uplifting way (though their ideologies widely differ). And despite the depressing picture of New York presented, the campaign exuded joy. Mamdani seems to enjoy himself—high-fiving, dabbing, fist-bumping and calling out “brother” to passersby on the street.
Contrast that with Cuomo’s uneven speech essentially conceding the race–”He won”—where he sounded jaded, unsure of what’s next and a far cry from the clear, confident governor who led celebrated press conferences during Covid.
Mamdani touched the third rail of New York politics—stood firm, then clarified his stance.
Remember when mayoral hopeful Andrew Yang sank his candidacy among some Jewish voters by tweeting that he was against circumcision? The war in Gaza, and more broadly sentiment toward Israel and Palestine, is widely regarded as a “third rail” of politics. Yet Mamdani has stood firm in his support for the Palestinian people and a ceasefire, saying Israel has a right to exist but needs to follow international law. In recent interviews, he has become more vocal about fighting antisemitism, vowing to protect all New Yorkers.
On issues beyond Israel, too, I suspect voters are more distrustful of politicians who moderate their stances to play to polls versus their own convictions. (Think of Harris on issues like guns and fracking.) Meanwhile, Mamdani illustrates an understanding that moderate voters are not necessarily lukewarm on issues, but are complex people with a range of opinions across the political spectrum. You can be religious and gay, you might support affirmative action yet oppose late-term abortion. As Mamdani has said, invoking former Mayor Ed Koch: “‘If you agree with me on nine out of 12 issues, vote for me. Twelve out of 12? See a psychiatrist.’”
Traditional polls do not capture diverse communities.
How—and why—did the polls, until the late Emerson survey, continue predicting a Cuomo victory? We’ve seen time and again that traditional polling doesn’t effectively capture subgroups, speakers of other languages or niche communities. Basically, that encompasses most of New York City.
This makes the case for getting even closer to the ground—reaching out to the new voters the Mamdani campaign was able to attract: young people, Muslims, immigrants, the disaffected–to present a fuller picture of our electorate. Nor has polling caught up to the different dynamics of early voting, longer get-out-the-vote cycles and ranked-choice voting.
Now comes the hard part.
Unlike New York City elections past, this one has hardly been decided in the primary. The city Board of Elections says it won’t have unofficial tallies until July 1. But the questions are many:
What party line—EndAntiSemitism or Safe&Affordable—will incumbent Mayor Eric Adams run on? Which side will Wall Street and Cuomo backers support now? Will Cuomo run on an independent party line? Who will win over Jewish voters who urged fellow New Yorkers not to rank Mamdani?
The upending of New York City politics, as we know it, has only just begun.
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