Native Vote 2026
November election is a referendum on the future of MAGA and Trump
Interesting night in Arizona. Former President Jonathan Nez officially wins the Democratic nomination for Congress (he would be the first Navajo elected, if he can pull it off) and the incumbent Navajo Nation President Buu Nygren loses his bid for reelection.
Let’s start with the federal elections in Arizona. The Grand Canyon state is all about the political divide that is MAGA and Donald Trump.
To read more articles by Mark Trahant, go to: Marktrahant.substack.com
Nez was unopposed in the primary as was Rep. Eli Crane. (The count will take a few days, but so far it looks like more Republicans voted in their primary election than did Democrats.) The most recent poll published by The New York Times shows Crane with a 3 point lead over Nez.
This is a district that the “independent” election commission designed to favor Republicans. Will that hold in a year where there’s a significant shift?
In Arizona’s 5th congressional district, Elizabeth Lee won the primary over Chris James. James is president and CEO of The National Center for American Indian Enterprise Development.
Arizona is telling a different story than other primaries. Rep. Greg Stanton, a solid traditional Democrat, sailed past a challenger from the left. And yet the traditional Democrats who invested early in candidate Marlene Galán-Woods, a former Republican and broadcaster, didn’t get their wish. Dr. Amish Shah, an emergency physician who was the Democratic nominee in the district in 2024, will be the party’s nominee.
And on the Republican side, it’s a true believer. Mark Lamb won despite a sex scandal that kept his name in the headlines for weeks.
“After a monthslong investigation, the Arizona Republic reported that several women alleged Lamb had sent explicit messages and nude photos and then used threats or intimidation to cover it up, initiated sexual encounters between him, his wife and others, and made a racist joke and cheered other derogatory remarks in messages with a border extremist. One woman also accused the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints of burying her complaints after she reported Lamb’s alleged behavior to church leaders.
“Lamb’s campaign has denied allegations of misconduct. In a Facebook post in May, Lamb’s wife said “after all we’ve been through, a massive smear campaign is certainly not going to stop us from doing what’s right.”
Then, the True Believers won across Arizona, especially with the Secretary of State race (as in the top election official).
In 2020, Alexander Kolodin, a Phoenix-area lawyer, went to court to try to overturn Mr. Trump’s narrow loss to Joseph R. Biden Jr. in Arizona. He helped to lead a lawsuit — along with Sidney Powell, a lawyer for Mr. Trump — that falsely claimed there had been “massive election fraud.”
A federal judge rejected the complaint, saying that it was built on “baseless claims” and could leave many Arizona voters “utterly disenfranchised.” In 2023, Mr. Kolodin was penalized by the Arizona state bar for his efforts to reverse the 2020 election result.
Now Mr. Kolodin is one election away from becoming Arizona’s top election official.
What this all means is that purple Arizona will be the truth teller for 2026. Is there still life in the MAGA movement or has Trump ended all that? What kind of Democrat will win? Watch Arizona for answers.
And it’s not just the candidates on the ballot. This November voters will also decide if mail in balloting should be restricted. (So much irony here. Arizonans have long been a fan of mail in voting and it’s helped Republicans significantly over the years.)
Vote Beat on the November initiative:
The measure is part of a national movement by Republicans to restrict voting by mail. Earlier this week, the GOP-controlled Ohio legislature passed a similar photo ID requirement for mail voters, sending it to Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine for his signature. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump issued an executive order in March giving the U.S. Postal Service unprecedented oversight over mail voting. That order has been challenged in court, and it remains to be seen if it will be implemented for the 2026 election.
“For years, the people of Arizona have been calling out for real election reform,” Kolodin said in March, adding that tightening voter ID requirements was also a priority of the Trump administration. “This measure gives them the opportunity to take it into their own hands.”
On the Navajo Nation, challenger Justin Jones was the top vote getter by a wide margin, followed by Crystalyne Curley, Speaker of the Navajo Nation Council. The incumbent, President Buu Nygren, took third and therefore will not be on the ballot in November.
(Just me: But with that many candidates, a top-four primary with Ranked Choice Voting would have made a lot of sense, Just sayin’.)
Navajo artist and entrepreneur Cal Nez posted his take on this race and its next steps on his Facebook page.
”Now we enter the Vice President selection phase. A VP pick will either supercharge these campaigns or completely destroy them before November.
• THE ARIZONA VS NEW MEXICO RULE
Traditional Navajo political balance is key. Because BOTH Justin Jones (Rock Point) and Crystalyne Curley (Tselani/Cottonwood) are from Arizona, both MUST choose a running mate from New Mexico. But let’s be real—the pickings in New Mexico are very, very thin right now!
• THE JUSTIN JONES DILEMMA
Holding a nearly 2-to-1 lead gives Jones room to breathe, but who aligns with that level of high-intensity campaign dynamic without getting eclipsed? Could it be a female running mate, or will his base reject that? Could Richelle Montoya or Johnny Russell Jr. align with him, or will internal dynamics collide? No seriously, it’s going to be very interesting who will pick. Jones has a strong presence, someone that is going to compliment him, can hold their own.
• THE CRYSTALYNE CURLEY PLAY
Crystalyne Curley has a massive mountain to climb to bridge that nearly 2:1 vote gap. Does she strictly follow tradition with an NM pick, or does she pull a wild card—like teaming up with Andrew Curley, who was surging quickly—to unite voters and make up the difference? That would be very interesting!
One other complexity for the Navajo Nation is the challenge of the Nygren administration that was defeated at the ballot box, running the government for the next 5 months. What kind of transition? How will his team align (or oppose) the two nominees? This is one of those moments that could completely redefine a leader’s legacy (for good or ill.) And it will be a fascinating look at governance.
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