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Whatever gains the GOP thought they made with Asian voters in 2024 are gone, according to the latest AP/NORC polling.

While AAPI voters tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic, to the tune of more than 60%, that support was declining. AAPI voters supported Joe Biden for president in 2020 by 68%, but dropped to 61% in 2024’s presidential election.

This was despite the fact that a biracial Asian American woman, former Vice President Kamala Harris, was on the ticket.

Why that happened, though, and why things shifted back, should surprise no one.

The long-ignored Asian vote

Political insiders blamed the 7% shift (and some of the unpredictability in the Asian vote) on both parties’ tendency to not invest in courting AAPI voters.

Advocacy group Asian & Pacific Islander American Vote found last month that 42% of AAPI voters had never been contacted by Democrats or Democratic-leaning organizations (a slight improvement over APIA’s 2022 poll, which found 52% of Asian voters experienced no Democratic Party outreach). 

The same poll found that number was even worse for the GOP, as almost 60 percent said they’d never been contacted by Republicans. 

“We’re not a special interest group,” New Jersey Democrat Andy Kim told Politico. “Oftentimes when I’m in D.C. with Asian American groups, and I hear some of the remarks given to them, they focus on AAPI discrimination and efforts to try to get a national museum for Asian-Pacific Americans. That’s all important, but we also want a seat at the table for the really big things, like the economy, like health care, like small business, like affordability.”

Goodbye, GOP gains

But that tiny 7% gain—much of it among AAPI voters ages 30-44, Chinese voters, and independent Asian voters—might be gone.

Following a larger, national trend of voters moving away from the GOP, more Asian American and Pacific Islander voters are leaning Democratic. They cite the economy, healthcare, and the rising cost of living as priorities and issues they believe Democrats would handle better than Republicans.

AAPI voters are also more likely to trust Democrats on immigration by 43%. The group used to lean more towards Republicans (31% for Dems versus 35% for the GOP) on that issue as recently as March this year. 

Now, only 24% trust the GOP on this issue.

And in March, AAPI voters were almost tied on who would better handle the economy, with 31% leaning Democratic compared with 28% leaning Republican. Today, the latest AP/NORC polling found that 41% of AAPI respondents trust Democrats on the economy, compared with 21% who still trust Republicans.

Heightened fears

The new AP/NORC polling also found that Asian voters are uneasy about this midterm election, with more feeling scared or fearful (37%) than excited (29%).

It’s easy to understand why.

Asian citizens and Asian immigrants alike have been under siege by ICE and were targets during the first Trump Administration when the president constantly denigrated China and blamed Chinese people for the COVID-19 virus. Stop AAPI Hate reports that arrests and deportations of Asians are up by 512% and 1,103%, respectively, over the last administration, with people from China and India being affected most, making up 25% and 29% of all ICE arrests.

Along with his poor handling of kitchen-table issues, the AAPI community overwhelmingly dislikes President Donald Trump and his handling of the country. 

Only 27% have a favorable view of the president, while only 25% approve of how he’s done his job.

The AP/NORC poll also found that Asian voters are highly concerned about foreign interference in our elections (64%), mail-in and absentee ballots being rejected (55%), and eligible voters being turned away from the polls (54%). They’re also worried about misinformation and disinformation about candidates (56%), legal challenges to the election results (48%), post-election violence (45%), and potential violence at the polls (41%).

But will these fears stop AAPIs from voting?

Showing up and showing out

If past is prologue, probably not. If anything, it will likely fuel them to turn out.

During the 2022 midterms, AAPI voters voted early at higher rates than any other ethnic group, with 67% taking advantage of early voting. Then in 2024, they led in mail-in ballots at more than 46%. They’re also the fastest-growing voting bloc by ethnicity in the U.S., growing in new eligible voters by 1.6 million since 2022. 

That’s 19% more eligible Asian voters between 2020 and 2024, compared with 3% overall growth in the rest of the U.S. electorate. 

Even though Asian Americans are not a monolith, they seem to share the national sentiment on the Trump Administration: Enough is enough.

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