The math isn’t mathing in Texas.
It’s a so-called majority-minority state—more than 62 percent of its state legislature is white, while more than 60 percent of the state’s populace is not. By comparison, California is 65 percent people of color and has been a Democratic stronghold for decades.
With time, strategy, and a lot of attention, it makes sense that Texas could be the new Georgia: a once-red Southern state turned purple through a clear grassroots strategy.
And yet, it’s not. It’s almost as if Democrats are waiting for a sign.
Well, if they read The New York Times this morning, they may have found it.
According to The New York Times’ study of recent polling, President Trump’s approval rating among Hispanics has plummeted, and many likely voters support Democrats at a margin of 35 points over Republicans. The reason is an obvious one: the proliferation of ICE and its anti-immigration campaign targeting anyone brown, regardless of their status.
In Texas, the Hispanic swing toward Democrats has reached as much as a 16-to-30 point advantage, depending on the district.
It’s a hard road, but not impossible, especially with the popularity of James Talarico, who is currently running for Senate there.
But Texas needs more than another white progressive savior (remember Beto O’Rourke?). It needs a clear strategy and a long-term investment in local and state elections.
Texas needs to empower, defend, and protect its Black and brown majority electorate.
A reality check
No Democratic presidential candidate has won the white vote since Lyndon B. Johnson.
And no Democrat—as long as they remain a big tent party—likely ever will.
But old habits die hard.
Democrats are often fixated on a middle-of-the-road, persuadable white voter, even though there are fewer and fewer of those to go around with every election cycle. And Texas, solidly red since the 90s, has often been written off by the party because of it.
Only recently, with Talarico’s campaign, has there been a glimmer of hope.
But that hope could be a certainty if Democrats actually invested in grassroots progressive campaigning.
The math is there.
In 2026, Hispanics make up about 39-to-40 percent of all voters, while about 12 percent of the state is Black or African American.
In theory, Democrats should be able to peel off enough white voters from Republicans to win a majority if—and it’s a big if—they can keep turnout and engagement high among Texas’ diverse population.
And yet, the national Democratic Party historically doesn’t invest as much in Texas.
In 2024, most of the Dems’ $150 million spend was concentrated in a Senate race against Ted Cruz, while states like Ohio received $745 million and Pennsylvania, a whopping $1.2 billion. The Democratic National Committee contributed only about $140,000 to voter turnout that same year.
Recently, Republican backers have opened their wallets again, outspending Democrats as they play defense.
Also compounding things historically is the complex nature of the Hispanic vote.
A complex mess
While a majority of Hispanics voted for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election, a reported 46 percent of Hispanics did not.
Some of it has to do with religion. Many Hispanics are Catholic, and abortion is a huge wedge issue. Also, socialism is a dirty word for anyone of South or Central American origin, due to decades of interference from the U.S. that has propped up socialist dictators over more progressive candidates who might have put their country and its people’s needs over those of the United States.
Also, there was George W. Bush, who made a direct appeal to Hispanic voters, even speaking Spanish, believing he could build a coalition with them based on their social conservatism.
There was one little hiccup.
The unchecked racism that is both bolstering and killing the Republican Party.
Bush could have easily built a forever red stronghold in the state if white voters could have overcome their racism against Mexican Americans and other Hispanics.
Instead, they ushered in Tea Party politics, which were followed by the Freedom Caucus, who were supplanted by the MAGA movement, which is presently feasting on the corpse of the modern GOP, pushing a cruel and unlawful anti-immigration agenda that affects all Hispanics regardless of their status.
Mostly because racists refuse to differentiate.
But if Talarico takes the Senate and if Governor Greg Abbott falls in his current dead heat against Dina Hinojosa, it will likely be the fault of Texas Republicans’ unchecked bigotry rather than the Democrats actually building a real, lasting ground game.
The winds are shifting. Will the party’s tactics finally shift with it?
