Serious hostilities between the US and Iran have resumed. On July 8, Donald Trump said that the ceasefire agreed by the two countries in June was “over”. Since then, he has ordered the US military to carry out intensive airstrikes on Iran and has reimposed an economic blockade of the country.
The US president has also begun to recycle threats he made earlier in the war. These include striking civilian targets and seizing Iran’s Kharg Island, which is host to most of its oil refining capacity.
Hope within the White House of achieving a deal to address Iran’s nuclear capabilities is fading. But Trump is hoping that his latest moves will force Iran to relinquish its control of the Strait of Hormuz, allowing global energy markets to return to normal.
There’s just one problem: none of these things have worked before, and there is no reason to think they will work now. In fact, Trump’s return to the same playbook that has previously failed to end the war on terms acceptable to the US shows just how limited his options have become.
The war began with an attempt by Trump and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to damage Iran’s nuclear capabilities and perhaps topple its regime. However, the conflict’s centre of gravity has since shifted.
Nuclear matters have taken a back seat…
